November 7, 2023

Fatigue and Prop Bets

Prop bets are often placed on individual statistics in a game such as the over/under on things like trikeouts in baseball, rebounds in the NBA, goals socred in hockey or touchdowns in football.

  • Look for teams who have been on lengthy road trips, players who are injured or players who are often overplayed by thier tams and bet the under on these stats.
  • Conversely, look to place bets on the over for teams or players who are facing tired opponents.

How Does Player Fatigue in Sports Work?

If you’ve played sports before, you know that fatigue can be a factor from game to game, quarter to quarter, and even shift to shift. If you’ve lost money on a bet that involved fatigue, you’re probably even more aware of how big a role it can play.

Here are the three main concepts to understand when it comes to player fatigue in sports.

How Physical is the Sport?

Fatigue can occur in any sport, but it’s no secret that the fatigue in a sport like golf doesn’t hit an athlete as hard as the physical fatigue of heavy contact sports.

Basketball and hockey are both really physical sports that tire players out. Other sports like football are definitely physical, but since they have big breaks between games, fatigue is less of a factor than leagues that play multiple games every week.

How Heavy is the Schedule?

Which athlete is more likely to recover from physical stress, the one that spends nearly every night on the road or one to who gets ample opportunity to rest up at home?

In certain sports, heavy schedules contribute to fatigue and the likelihood injuries. Leagues such as the NHL and the NBA have heavy travel schedules combined with a physically draining sport. Of course, the MLB is the mother of all regular-season schedules, but the nature of the sports, along with the fact that games are often played in series of three, means that the travel schedule isn’t as hard on MLB athletes as it is on NHL or NBA athletes.

Even though baseball isn’t asphysical, the heavy schedule can make fatigue a factor that affects hitting and putching.

How Much Time Has an Athlete Played?

Unless you talking about Superman (or Lebron James), every athlete will suffer from being ovverplayed by their coach.

The nature of every sport is different, but sports such as soccer, baseball, and hockey have really stepped up their game to learn more about how overplaying an athlete can lead to injuries, fatigue, and poor performance.

In baseball, tracking the innings of every individual pitcher is perfected down to a science. In hockey, more and more research is leading coaches to play their backup netminder with more regularity because starting goalies begin to break down physically when they play too much.

Exceptions for Fatigue in Sports Betting

There’s a line between fatigue and too much rest. When players have too much time off they can get rusty. Here are three examples where fatigue isn’t the defining factor in the matchup.

“Tired” Teams Against Well-rested Teams

Believe it or not, there can be an advantage to “tired” teams playing against teams that have had too much rest.

This tends to happen in the playoffs in the NBA and NHL, where a team with one week of rest could be facing a team with one day of rest. There is a common belief that if a team rests for too long, they could be rusty against a team that’s in the groove.

“Tired” Teams Playing Against Star Players Coming Back from Injury

Another area where fatigue could play a lesser role is when a “tired” team faces off against an opponent with a star player coming back from an injury. Even when athletes are healthy, it usually takes them time to get back up to game speed after being away for so long.

Pinpointing Teams That Handle Fatigue Well

It is easy enough to look at a schedule and find a tired team facing a team that’s more well-rested. What that doesn’t acount for are teams that do an outstanding job of handling fatigue

When you do find these teams (or individual players, as mentioned above), take a second look at who they might be facing, and consider whether fatigue is really a factor based on how the team or player in question manages fatigue.

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